Sleepy Bastard Challenge.

.... Challenge indeed. I am not winning in the morning tourneys. Partly this is a little bad luck- I think I am running at about 5-10% below EV in shoves and calls. These are crucial at stars b/c stack sizes spend more time in the 8 or lower BB stages.

A sure indication that things are not the way they should be are my results (swongy and -EV over the last little while) and my finish positions. I am not playing the correct game in high blinds against callers. Thus, I frequently double up or go out at the 50/100 and higher levels with 5-9 players left. No good. Further, I am crashing into the bubble way too often and playing in a style that encourages confrontations. This increases 4th places, reduces second places and causes major frustrations. See images.

I need to adjust to a few things.

1. The jump from a BB of 50 to 100 is exactly as bad as PES says. Thin steals demand a stack of about 2.2k. At FTP, you can steal thin for a couple levels with a stack that his been blinded off. No chance here, it's all just shoves.
2. I see a ton of mediocre players limp calling with open shovable hands.
   
3. The good players try to gain EV from players who cannot recognize commitment thresholds.
4. Resteals and blind on blind are always serious business here. I would estimate that I barely get 2:1 when I am three bet by a reg. I guess the time spent with stacks of 8 BB or less hones different skills.
   
5. The Moshman/Vandweller (shoves = QQ rarely, KK+ all the time) model is clearly in effect at $10 and above
   
6. People take flops (wtf?) with JJ and AK, even in the 8-15 BB stack sizes. Why don't they just set the money on fire instead?
   
7. All-in (semi-)bluffing is always suspected and hence (correctly) rarely done. Ex. I steal raise from the cutoff with 12 BB left and Qs6s, raising 2.5 BB. BB calls. Flop comes 567 rainbow. I am clearly committed, since the board is too dangerous to check. BB leads out for 2/3 pot, not quite committing. I shove. Villain tanks and rolls Th9h, for a gutshot, possible overs and a backdoor flush.

I hate every decision villain made, but these seem marginal to the regs here. I have to adjust.

Homework for myself:

1. Look at actual fold equity with effective stacks of 3, 5, 7.5, 10, 12, and 15-20.
2. Extract all cold shove hands from the DB at let wiz have a day with them. (Prereq, I have to reinstall wiz).
3. Start grunching more hands.