Number 1 with a bullet.
Galfond on an opponent, honestly.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
100 million hands analyzed, none of them by me.
http://cigital.com/resources/gaming/poker/100M-Hand-AnalysisReport.pdf
100 million poker hands from 2008, December on pokerstars.
Summary result:
*Most hands (74%) are decided without the winner showing the precise cards he/she is playing. Thus the nature of the hands is irrelevant.
*In the remaining hands, >50% are won by a player who does not have the best possible hand among those dealt preflop.
Sumamry judgement impending:
*It is difficult to imagine that pure chance is the governing factor in the majority of hold em hand outcomes.
It is likely that a larger-scale study could define and quantify different types of skills in poker:
*table selection (playing in situations where the above numbers are skewed)
*Ability to manipulate frequency of showdowns.
*Ability to manipulate the expected value at showdown.
100 million poker hands from 2008, December on pokerstars.
Summary result:
*Most hands (74%) are decided without the winner showing the precise cards he/she is playing. Thus the nature of the hands is irrelevant.
*In the remaining hands, >50% are won by a player who does not have the best possible hand among those dealt preflop.
Sumamry judgement impending:
*It is difficult to imagine that pure chance is the governing factor in the majority of hold em hand outcomes.
It is likely that a larger-scale study could define and quantify different types of skills in poker:
*table selection (playing in situations where the above numbers are skewed)
*Ability to manipulate frequency of showdowns.
*Ability to manipulate the expected value at showdown.
March Summary
Short... real short.
Entering the computer troubles into consideration, I hit my expected returns: about $350* dollars. This is a little short of my original stated goal of 1k, but not bad really.
On the upside, I am winning at 25 NL and really feel like I've improved. Taking a second look at tournament play reveals that I've got a way to go, but my play there is profitable despite being very volatile against weakish PokerStars regulars.
I'll summarize some April goals in an upcoming post.
*+/- $50 due to data loss.
Entering the computer troubles into consideration, I hit my expected returns: about $350* dollars. This is a little short of my original stated goal of 1k, but not bad really.
On the upside, I am winning at 25 NL and really feel like I've improved. Taking a second look at tournament play reveals that I've got a way to go, but my play there is profitable despite being very volatile against weakish PokerStars regulars.
I'll summarize some April goals in an upcoming post.
*+/- $50 due to data loss.
Monday, March 30, 2009
The sleepy lion returns.
I went spend crazy this weekend, buying a nice new office chair with lumbar support, a new monitor, and a backup hard drive.
I have also played a heap few more sit n gos. They have sat and gone a little worse than I would like. I am using SNGWizard to check my performace- I have made some loose shoves (always a problem for me) and have been gun-shy shoving from the small blind and button with a short stack- but I have also caught some really tough breaks on the bubble and in three handed play.
Basically, when the tournament is down to 3 or 4 people, the value of NOT losing is much higher than the value of winning, so responding to conditions and player tendencies is very positive EV. If you're doing it correctly, you pick up a ton of chips and when you get it all in you are doing it with a positive expectation overall. But, the cards have not been falling that way. Today was a big improvement, but I am still short more than a few buy-ins this week. That's life.
On the bright side, I made a deep run into a shootout tournament this morning. Shootouts are fun- you need to win the table to advance to a new table until there is just one remaining. The $5 buy in field was incredibly weak. I just killed these clowns. I ran well and made it to the penultimate round of tables, but ran into a wave of tough breaks. Nonetheless it was a nice cash.
25 NL is going very, very well. Having watched videos and posted on hands has improved my understanding of this game immensely. I am eager to see the results in my old stomping grounds, 100 NL.
I have also played a heap few more sit n gos. They have sat and gone a little worse than I would like. I am using SNGWizard to check my performace- I have made some loose shoves (always a problem for me) and have been gun-shy shoving from the small blind and button with a short stack- but I have also caught some really tough breaks on the bubble and in three handed play.
Basically, when the tournament is down to 3 or 4 people, the value of NOT losing is much higher than the value of winning, so responding to conditions and player tendencies is very positive EV. If you're doing it correctly, you pick up a ton of chips and when you get it all in you are doing it with a positive expectation overall. But, the cards have not been falling that way. Today was a big improvement, but I am still short more than a few buy-ins this week. That's life.
On the bright side, I made a deep run into a shootout tournament this morning. Shootouts are fun- you need to win the table to advance to a new table until there is just one remaining. The $5 buy in field was incredibly weak. I just killed these clowns. I ran well and made it to the penultimate round of tables, but ran into a wave of tough breaks. Nonetheless it was a nice cash.
25 NL is going very, very well. Having watched videos and posted on hands has improved my understanding of this game immensely. I am eager to see the results in my old stomping grounds, 100 NL.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Sleepy Bastard Challenge.

.... Challenge indeed. I am not winning in the morning tourneys. Partly this is a little bad luck- I think I am running at about 5-10% below EV in shoves and calls. These are crucial at stars b/c stack sizes spend more time in the 8 or lower BB stages.A sure indication that things are not the way they should be are my results (swongy and -EV over the last little while) and my finish positions. I am not playing the correct game in high blinds against callers. Thus, I frequently double up or go out at the 50/100 and higher levels with 5-9 players left. No good. Further, I am crashing into the bubble way too often and playing in a style that encourages confrontations. This increases 4th places, reduces second places and causes major frustrations. See images.
I need to adjust to a few things.
- The jump from a BB of 50 to 100 is exactly as bad as PES says. Thin steals demand a stack of about 2.2k. At FTP, you can steal thin for a couple levels with a stack that his been blinded off. No chance here, it's all just shoves.
- I see a ton of mediocre players limp calling with open shovable hands.
- The good players try to gain EV from players who cannot recognize commitment thresholds.
- Resteals and blind on blind are always serious business here. I would estimate that I barely get 2:1 when I am three bet by a reg. I guess the time spent with stacks of 8 BB or less hones different skills.
- The Moshman/Vandweller (shoves = QQ rarely, KK+ all the time) model is clearly in effect at $10 and above
- People take flops (wtf?) with JJ and AK, even in the 8-15 BB stack sizes. Why don't they just set the money on fire instead?
- All-in (semi-)bluffing is always suspected and hence (correctly) rarely done. Ex. I steal raise from the cutoff with 12 BB left and Qs6s, raising 2.5 BB. BB calls. Flop comes 567 rainbow. I am clearly committed, since the board is too dangerous to check. BB leads out for 2/3 pot, not quite committing. I shove. Villain tanks and rolls Th9h, for a gutshot, possible overs and a backdoor flush.
Homework for myself:
- Look at actual fold equity with effective stacks of 3, 5, 7.5, 10, 12, and 15-20.
- Extract all cold shove hands from the DB at let wiz have a day with them. (Prereq, I have to reinstall wiz).
- Start grunching more hands.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
THE SLEEPY LION SLEEPY BASTARD CHALLENGE.
I sleep in all the time.
To combat this, I am signing up in advance for NLH poker tournaments that occur in the early hours of PDT.
Tomorrow: 6 AM, NLH $5+0.50, no rebuys. 149949564. Registration starts at midnight here.
Come and get it.
To combat this, I am signing up in advance for NLH poker tournaments that occur in the early hours of PDT.
Tomorrow: 6 AM, NLH $5+0.50, no rebuys. 149949564. Registration starts at midnight here.
Come and get it.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Quick Shout-out to CardRunners/Stoxpoker.
I have been a member of stoxpoker for quite some time thanks to the old "buy both pokertracker AND our site and receive jumbo discounts" packages. I was skeptical when they merged their business with cardrunners but kept the sites discreet.
Nonetheless, I checked it out using their "free poker training" deal and decided to spend some full tilt "frequent player points" on several month of subscription. Due to a technical mishap and oversight on my part, my subscription lapsed before I managed to complete the purchase.
The issue was resolved quickly and professionally over 1 business day.
So, although the concept of a "poker training" site is a little seedy, these guys produce two decent products and have decent customer service.
Nonetheless, I checked it out using their "free poker training" deal and decided to spend some full tilt "frequent player points" on several month of subscription. Due to a technical mishap and oversight on my part, my subscription lapsed before I managed to complete the purchase.
The issue was resolved quickly and professionally over 1 business day.
So, although the concept of a "poker training" site is a little seedy, these guys produce two decent products and have decent customer service.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Before and After Moments: Deepening Insight About the Game of Poker.
This evening over dinner, I was explaining how I can draw a diagram that explains why left and right, unlike up and down, are reversed in a mirror image and I of course KNOW why this is true. Yet, when I think about it, the fact that one plane of orientation is reversed while the other is held fixed seems downright silly.
One day, I'm sure an insightful 1-sentence explanation will dawn on me and it will all make sense. Until then, I wait.
Deep, nuanced understanding of a concept is never complete; nonetheless, I reckon everyone can recall I time when a concept that he or she had considered for a long time (perhaps even to a point of frustration, exhaustion, or satisfaction) went from a set of concepts held together through logic, intuition, and rigor to a singularity. That is to say, some part of a body of related knowledge became re-organized in such a way that the inter-relationships, causalities and properties were accessible in toto as a gestalt, reliable framework.
In poker, I can think of a view of these that I have mastered in such a way. In the future, perhaps I will write more about this.
One day, I'm sure an insightful 1-sentence explanation will dawn on me and it will all make sense. Until then, I wait.
Deep, nuanced understanding of a concept is never complete; nonetheless, I reckon everyone can recall I time when a concept that he or she had considered for a long time (perhaps even to a point of frustration, exhaustion, or satisfaction) went from a set of concepts held together through logic, intuition, and rigor to a singularity. That is to say, some part of a body of related knowledge became re-organized in such a way that the inter-relationships, causalities and properties were accessible in toto as a gestalt, reliable framework.
In poker, I can think of a view of these that I have mastered in such a way. In the future, perhaps I will write more about this.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Intro Lesson and a Poker Hand Anatomy Lesson.
In accordance with a friend's wishes, I'm going to give him an electronic poker lesson.
Step I. Learn the rules.
Poker is a game of combinations. The winner of a hand at showdown is the player playing the highest ranking, rarest 5-card combination.
Poker is a game of betting and bluffing. In order to win a poker hand, you must either:
Step II: Think Big Picture.
To be more general and straightforward, poker winners play in a way that minimizes the number and cost of their mistakes, while maximizing the cost of their opponents' mistakes.
In poker at least some of the cards are face-down. So you never know for certain whether your hand is best or worst. Poker is a game of incomplete information. Making the most of the available data is a critical skill.
The only way to obtain information is to watch and think critically about your opponents actions. To interpret this information best, you must use critical thinking and intuition. Some things you must recognize and interpret:
Part V: Three instructive hands.
These are three hands I culled from about 40 minutes of playing 6 "penny" or "micro" stakes tables on the internet. Play in these hands is comparable to play at $1/$2 and $2/$4 limit hold em tables in Las Vegas.
Hand 1: I am dealt pocket jacks on the button.
I have the button and a premium holding. I am undoubtedly not folding. One player folds and two others call the big blind to "limp in".
I raise, expecting my hand is best and is likely to win at showdown.
The small blind calls, the big blind folds and the two limpers call. The flop is dealt. It contains a jack of clubs, the Q of spades and the seven of spades. All the players check to me.
My hand- 3 Jacks- is the second best of all possible hands on this flop. I have the best hand at the table nearly all the time. However, anyone with two spades in hand now has a flush draw. I bet for value (I expect any hand with a queen to call) and to charge the draws. King-ten and hands with two spades can improve to be me.
All 3 opponents call. The turn brings the King of Spades. A flush-card has hit. My hand may not be the best now, but could very well be. Again it checks to me.
I bet for value.
The small blind calls and the next player raises. The cutoff (CO- hand next to the button folds).
My opponent may be betting a flush, a king, two spades for a flush, or two pair. I am likely ahead and I can improve against a flush if the board pairs. I raise again.
The small blind folds and the check-raiser calls. The river brings a red ten. This is a terrible card, putting 4-to-a-straight on the board. Any nine or ace now beats me. My opponent bets.
My opponent is representing a flush, an ace, or a nine and is betting for value. There is some chance he has a worse hand. The pot is offering me 14.5-to-1 to make a call. If he is betting a worse hand 8% of the time, calling will be profitable. I call.
My opponent shows ace-king for the straight. I dislike my opponents play in this hand a tremendous amount. He should have raised and 4-bet preflop, bet the flop, and called on the turn instead of raising after the flop action. The only thing he did correctly was bet the river, which I surely check behind with a worse hand. The worse player won. That's poker.
Hand 2: How grown-ups play Ace-king.
Several players limp and I find Ace-king in the cutoff. I raise, several players call and another reraises.
While a limp-reraise is the ultimate show of strength in hold'em, my hand is strong and depletes the deck of kings and aces. My opponent is less likely to have aces or kings than usual, and so my hand rates to be very competitive with his. I reraise to put get more money in.
The button calls, as does the limp-reraiser. The flop brings two-tone K84. It checks to me.
My hand rates to be best on this flop. I bet for value.
The button raises, and the out of position player (OOP) calls.
I raise again to bet for value against one beaten hand and another that I probably beat. The button may have three of a kind but probably does not.
The button caps. The OOP calls. I call. The turn is an offsuit 7. OOP check to me.
This does complete a draw, but all the betting indicates no one has it. I bet for value.
Again the button raises and OOP calls.
I am beginning to believe that the button has it. It is another good king, two pair, AA, or a set. The pot is huge and my hand may still win at showdown. I call.
The river brings a lovely offsuit ace. It checks to me.
My hand just improved and the board basically indicates that the villain does not have AA. I expect him to bet most of his hands. I expect the OOP player to call. I check, intending to raise both of them and pick up an extra two bets when my hand is best.
The villains fall face first into my trap, I make my raise and show down my winner. As it turns out I was ahead the whole way.
Hand 3: Further out of the box.
The table is 4-handed. The cutoff folds and the button completes the big blind. The small blind calls.
I have QJ. I have been attacking this table with aggression to great success. This hand rates well against the small blinds range as well as the buttons limping range (I expect he would make a steal raise with AJ, AQ, KQ, KJ, or any pair higher than TT). I raise.
Both players call and the flop comes 59J rainbow. SB checks.
The board is dry, the pot is big and my hand rates to be best. I bet for value.
The button raises, the SB three bets.
The only hands that hit this flop hard are J9, QT (overcard and a straight draw), T8, sets and ugly two pair. Given my level of aggression, I expect that they would trap me with their best hands. I think they are just pushing back with crappy hands. In poker terms, they are value betting light or making bad semi-bluffs. With the best hand and weak players betting spitefully, I call. They might spite bluff again.
The button caps and everyone calls. the turn brings a second jack. SB bets.
I just do not believe his hand is better than mine here. The card only slightly improves my hand but I may fold the button if I raise. I call.
The button raises and the SB calls.
Now it really looks like the button might have a hand that beats me. But again, the pot is big and he has to beat me quite often to make my calling unprofitable. I call. I intend to check and call on the river unless a queen hits or the board pairs.
The river brings a seven. The SB checks. I check. The button bets his last few pennies. The SB calls. I call.
My hand wins.
In this hand, I make several "poker plays".
Step I. Learn the rules.
Poker is a game of combinations. The winner of a hand at showdown is the player playing the highest ranking, rarest 5-card combination.
Poker is a game of betting and bluffing. In order to win a poker hand, you must either:
- bet, so that your opponent folds a hand that would win at showdown.
- bet and call your way to showdown with the winning hand.
Step II: Think Big Picture.
To be more general and straightforward, poker winners play in a way that minimizes the number and cost of their mistakes, while maximizing the cost of their opponents' mistakes.
In poker at least some of the cards are face-down. So you never know for certain whether your hand is best or worst. Poker is a game of incomplete information. Making the most of the available data is a critical skill.
The only way to obtain information is to watch and think critically about your opponents actions. To interpret this information best, you must use critical thinking and intuition. Some things you must recognize and interpret:
- Behavior patterns. For example: if an opponent tends to play very passively and play very few cards, a bet from this opponent indicates a hand that is likely very strong.
- The odds. Sometimes your hand is not best but can easily improve. You must know and act upon the odds you have.
- The meaning of different cards and future cards for hand values.
- Deliberate deception.
- Unintentional actions or "tells".
- Every poker game plays for a high hand, a low hand (the WORST hand), or both.
- Every poker game has multiple rounds of play and begins with some sort of bet in the dark.
- In "Ante games" such as stud games and some draw varieties, everyone posts a small blind bet.
- In "Blind games" some players post larger bets in the dark. Since hold 'em is a blind game, I will discuss the mechanics of that game in more detail below.
- The two players to the left of the "button" (dealer seat) post a small and large blind.
- Starting with the small blind and ending with the dealer each player is dealt one card then another.
- The first player without a bet in front of them must decide whether to fold their hand, call the blind's dark bet (match it), or raise it. In fixed limit games, each bet is an increment of the big blind. If the big blind is $2, a raise is a $4 bet. A second raise is a $6 bet.
- Each player must match the previous players bet, raise it, or fold. In Las Vegas, no more than five bets can go in per round of play. On the internet, it is 4 bets per round.
- After the button acts, the small blind may act to call the bet, fold or raise as per everyone else. The same goes for the big blind.
- If no one has raised the big blind, the big blind can "check" to take a free flop or raise.
- After everyone has folded or matched the bet for the "preflop round". The dealer assembles a pot of chips in the middle, then deals one card face down (a burnt card, to prevent cheating) and three face up. These are the flop.
- The first player with a hand to the dealer's left may either bet or check in turn. Checking is declining to bet.
- Should someone bet, each player in turn must either call, fold or raise. The action is complete when each player in the hand has either folded or matched the last bettors bet.
- The dealer gathers the pot, burns a card and turns another face-up. This is the turn. On the turn and river, the bets double to two times the big blind. As before each player starting on the button's left must check or bet. Once a bet is made, each player must raise, fold, or call.
- The whole procedure of the turn is repeated for the river. A fifth card is put on the table and betting happens again.
- After the last bet is called, the final bettor turns his two hole cards face up to reveal his hand (the hand is the best 5 card hand he can make with any five cards between his hand and the board). Each player in turn can reveal their hand if it beats the best hand presently showing, or throw it away.
- The best hand showing is awarded the pot. The dealer is typically given a small tip.
- Alternately, should no player wish to call a bet on any street, the last bettor is awarded the pot. That player returns their cards.
- The button moves 1 player to the left.
- Each hand starts with many players and ends with one winner. The winner has the best hand at showdown.
- The button gives a player the ability to act after everyone else.
- In order to win, a player must bet enough to convince opponents to fold or make and call many bets.
Part V: Three instructive hands.
These are three hands I culled from about 40 minutes of playing 6 "penny" or "micro" stakes tables on the internet. Play in these hands is comparable to play at $1/$2 and $2/$4 limit hold em tables in Las Vegas.
Hand 1: I am dealt pocket jacks on the button.
I have the button and a premium holding. I am undoubtedly not folding. One player folds and two others call the big blind to "limp in".
I raise, expecting my hand is best and is likely to win at showdown.
The small blind calls, the big blind folds and the two limpers call. The flop is dealt. It contains a jack of clubs, the Q of spades and the seven of spades. All the players check to me.
My hand- 3 Jacks- is the second best of all possible hands on this flop. I have the best hand at the table nearly all the time. However, anyone with two spades in hand now has a flush draw. I bet for value (I expect any hand with a queen to call) and to charge the draws. King-ten and hands with two spades can improve to be me.
All 3 opponents call. The turn brings the King of Spades. A flush-card has hit. My hand may not be the best now, but could very well be. Again it checks to me.
I bet for value.
The small blind calls and the next player raises. The cutoff (CO- hand next to the button folds).
My opponent may be betting a flush, a king, two spades for a flush, or two pair. I am likely ahead and I can improve against a flush if the board pairs. I raise again.
The small blind folds and the check-raiser calls. The river brings a red ten. This is a terrible card, putting 4-to-a-straight on the board. Any nine or ace now beats me. My opponent bets.
My opponent is representing a flush, an ace, or a nine and is betting for value. There is some chance he has a worse hand. The pot is offering me 14.5-to-1 to make a call. If he is betting a worse hand 8% of the time, calling will be profitable. I call.
My opponent shows ace-king for the straight. I dislike my opponents play in this hand a tremendous amount. He should have raised and 4-bet preflop, bet the flop, and called on the turn instead of raising after the flop action. The only thing he did correctly was bet the river, which I surely check behind with a worse hand. The worse player won. That's poker.
Hand 2: How grown-ups play Ace-king.
Several players limp and I find Ace-king in the cutoff. I raise, several players call and another reraises.
While a limp-reraise is the ultimate show of strength in hold'em, my hand is strong and depletes the deck of kings and aces. My opponent is less likely to have aces or kings than usual, and so my hand rates to be very competitive with his. I reraise to put get more money in.
The button calls, as does the limp-reraiser. The flop brings two-tone K84. It checks to me.
My hand rates to be best on this flop. I bet for value.
The button raises, and the out of position player (OOP) calls.
I raise again to bet for value against one beaten hand and another that I probably beat. The button may have three of a kind but probably does not.
The button caps. The OOP calls. I call. The turn is an offsuit 7. OOP check to me.
This does complete a draw, but all the betting indicates no one has it. I bet for value.
Again the button raises and OOP calls.
I am beginning to believe that the button has it. It is another good king, two pair, AA, or a set. The pot is huge and my hand may still win at showdown. I call.
The river brings a lovely offsuit ace. It checks to me.
My hand just improved and the board basically indicates that the villain does not have AA. I expect him to bet most of his hands. I expect the OOP player to call. I check, intending to raise both of them and pick up an extra two bets when my hand is best.
The villains fall face first into my trap, I make my raise and show down my winner. As it turns out I was ahead the whole way.
Hand 3: Further out of the box.
The table is 4-handed. The cutoff folds and the button completes the big blind. The small blind calls.
I have QJ. I have been attacking this table with aggression to great success. This hand rates well against the small blinds range as well as the buttons limping range (I expect he would make a steal raise with AJ, AQ, KQ, KJ, or any pair higher than TT). I raise.
Both players call and the flop comes 59J rainbow. SB checks.
The board is dry, the pot is big and my hand rates to be best. I bet for value.
The button raises, the SB three bets.
The only hands that hit this flop hard are J9, QT (overcard and a straight draw), T8, sets and ugly two pair. Given my level of aggression, I expect that they would trap me with their best hands. I think they are just pushing back with crappy hands. In poker terms, they are value betting light or making bad semi-bluffs. With the best hand and weak players betting spitefully, I call. They might spite bluff again.
The button caps and everyone calls. the turn brings a second jack. SB bets.
I just do not believe his hand is better than mine here. The card only slightly improves my hand but I may fold the button if I raise. I call.
The button raises and the SB calls.
Now it really looks like the button might have a hand that beats me. But again, the pot is big and he has to beat me quite often to make my calling unprofitable. I call. I intend to check and call on the river unless a queen hits or the board pairs.
The river brings a seven. The SB checks. I check. The button bets his last few pennies. The SB calls. I call.
My hand wins.
In this hand, I make several "poker plays".
- I use my table image to push my opponents out of their comfort zones.
- I correctly recognize that the aggression at the table is a "reverse tell", recognizing that they would probably trap me with a genuinely strong hand.
- I make a small mistake. When the button bets his last few pennies and the SB calls, I call. I missed an easy raise for value.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Good news.
The computers problem lay solely in the hard-drive. I can get back to "ramming und jamming" soon enough.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
patrick minton.
I am watching a stoxpoker video from Patrick "BilboSan" Minton. It reminds of why I was able to win quite a bit in $1 NL. I was able to control my opponents, read their hands, value bet, and avoid tough spots against them better than they could against me. His value betting examples are superb.
In the PC, the mighty PC...
... the problem persists further.
My PC is busted. After two reformats with "all the fixins", there were still substantial errors on my hard drive. This is sucky. Although, after the second reformat my sound drivers were installed incorrectly, so all the sounds acquired a Floydian reverb quality. Playing FreeCell was like listening to an interactive "Dark Side of the Moon".
I sent it in for repairs to some guys who have a shop at the creepy end of the U District. They seemed to be bullshit-free so, I like my chances of getting it fixed. They said Friday at the lastest. Yay.
Still, I have played more than a little. And I have been KILLING IT. I have made up for my Full Tilt Downswings by ripping up pokerstars. I've been playing a few things:
I also watched a few cardrunners freebies and this one by OMGClayAiken, poker supergenius. Although his site has the least content of any of them. 1/2 of them are by Galfond himself. I love the way he plays and thinks, so I am consdering joining up.
I'm feeling better- well enough to plan and meditate, at least. So hopefully once I get my hard drive fixed, I can resume my game and get back to work.
My PC is busted. After two reformats with "all the fixins", there were still substantial errors on my hard drive. This is sucky. Although, after the second reformat my sound drivers were installed incorrectly, so all the sounds acquired a Floydian reverb quality. Playing FreeCell was like listening to an interactive "Dark Side of the Moon".
I sent it in for repairs to some guys who have a shop at the creepy end of the U District. They seemed to be bullshit-free so, I like my chances of getting it fixed. They said Friday at the lastest. Yay.
Still, I have played more than a little. And I have been KILLING IT. I have made up for my Full Tilt Downswings by ripping up pokerstars. I've been playing a few things:
- $25 and $50 NL. I have been grinding it well there. Who knows if I am playing differently or just running well. Right now, I'm just glad for the change.
- $15+$1 Turbos on Stars. These games are a cakewalk compared to turbos on FTP for a couple reasons: one extra level of blinds, antes instead of a blind up, and a more even distribution between poor players and multitabling grinders. I can beat the entire group of them, but with many more poor players around there's more money lying on the table. Thanks both to my edge in play and a huge amount of good luck, I am running up and down these games 30% ROI over the month... 15% higher than my expected result on FTP at the same stakes. I am in the money in 9 table games 42% of the time and finishing first more than half of those.
- Baby stakes pot limit Omaha. I don't understand why people like a game that plays the same as big bet poker but gives professionals an even bigger edge. I am nowhere near to "grokking" play in this game but it is fun. A few observations:
- The change in hand value from preflop to flop is enormous. But, that is a relative thing. If two hands of the same type, their relative value seems to stay the same or increase in difference most of the time. A wet flop favors the wettest hand that hits it pretty hugely.
- Nobody gets the outs in this game at the microstakes. Not nut outs are not outs, they are minus outs for your opponents. Which is about the same for bluffing, but way different for calling.
- Showdown value changes radically. Hands can basically become worthless in one card.
- Position is superhuge. Because of the radical change in hand values, position is an even bigger premium than in big bet hold 'em.
- Badugi. This game is ridiculous. It's structure like hold 'em, but with no board cards. The goal is to make the "worst" four card hand. Hand rankings are always in combination (like razz), except that suits matter. All hands with four different suits beat all hands with three and so on. Aces are low, so the best hands are four suit A234, A235, A245, A345, 2345, A236, and so on. Given the number of draws, the complexity of hands, and its format, it is basically lesson in hand reading, pricing opponents in, and pot odds.
- HORSE. I am pretty good at playing weak tight and fishy opponents in all these games. I will be good enough to get winner in the "for a living stakes" pretty soon.
I also watched a few cardrunners freebies and this one by OMGClayAiken, poker supergenius. Although his site has the least content of any of them. 1/2 of them are by Galfond himself. I love the way he plays and thinks, so I am consdering joining up.
I'm feeling better- well enough to plan and meditate, at least. So hopefully once I get my hard drive fixed, I can resume my game and get back to work.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The Revenge of the Sleepy Lion.
I uber-overslept yesterday, so I decided to stay up all night to get back on schedule. Of course, I played some poker. Specifically 25 NL at Stars and FTP. Some observations:
1. I open on the button with Qh2h for 3 BB, awful player in the big blind with 50 BB calls.
The flop comes Kh7h3s. The villain has been check-raising or folding most of the past few times we have confronted each other. I doubt my hand stands up to his check-raising range but has many ways to improve. I check.
The turn is the 3h. The villain leads out for 4 BB. I mistakenly interpret this for a small bluff or a bet with 3 of a kind. When the villain's hand improves greatly, he generally bets a large amount. Because I see him as weak, I raise slightly- 6BB. Villain calls.
The river is the Ah. Villain leads for 4BB again. I view his hand now as a mediocre flush. I expect him to pay off any bet I make. I shove all-in.
Villain calls with two black aces in the hole.
2. A forgettable semiTAG player, recently won a big pot from me when I check raise shoved with the nut heart draw on an As9s9c board. He called and showed 9d7s. I improved to a flush and he rivered a boat. Now we are 150 BB deep. He opens in the hijack for 3.5 BB. I reraise to about 12 BB with Ks4s hoping he'll just fold. He tanks a little, then calls.
Flop is Qs8s4h. Villain checks to me and I bet 20 BB. He insta-minraises me to 40 BB straight. I insta-call (mistakenly) without tanking.
The turn brings the Js. This is a great card for me, completing my flush. The villain checks, indicating a desire to show the hand down. I put him on an overpair, set, or AQ. There is room for one heart in his hand. I bet 65 BB, hoping to induce the villain to shove the rest. Villain just calls with ~40 BB behind.
The river is the 6s. The villain thinks for a little bit, then puts the rest of his chips in. I reluctantly call.
The reality is, we were both committed on the turn. He cannot fold if a non-spade comes, or he has allowed me to run an incredibly profitable 2-street bluff (think about it: if I did this move with the Ks4c and he folded when a Tc came off, he'd be a huge dork).
But shit, this guy was kind of clumsy and I considered that his hand was very likely live. I should have put his money in way ahead.
- The aggression level of the regulars: much higher preflop at FTP, much higher postflop at stars.
- It is much easier to valuetown for stacks at FTP, but much harder to get to a flop in position with the best kind of hands. Much easier to avoid valuetowning at Stars: the regulars are so very fit or fold.
- I have acquired new insight into the nature of my "losing play" at micro-NLH.
- I typically lose focus on the toughest parts of multi-street no limit play: position, hand range, and table image.
- I start using the HUD data to justify wreckless decision making.
- I make one really bad decision and this either:
- (1) cascades into multiple bad decisions, OR
- (2) forces me to shut down my session.
1. I open on the button with Qh2h for 3 BB, awful player in the big blind with 50 BB calls.
The flop comes Kh7h3s. The villain has been check-raising or folding most of the past few times we have confronted each other. I doubt my hand stands up to his check-raising range but has many ways to improve. I check.
The turn is the 3h. The villain leads out for 4 BB. I mistakenly interpret this for a small bluff or a bet with 3 of a kind. When the villain's hand improves greatly, he generally bets a large amount. Because I see him as weak, I raise slightly- 6BB. Villain calls.
The river is the Ah. Villain leads for 4BB again. I view his hand now as a mediocre flush. I expect him to pay off any bet I make. I shove all-in.
Villain calls with two black aces in the hole.
2. A forgettable semiTAG player, recently won a big pot from me when I check raise shoved with the nut heart draw on an As9s9c board. He called and showed 9d7s. I improved to a flush and he rivered a boat. Now we are 150 BB deep. He opens in the hijack for 3.5 BB. I reraise to about 12 BB with Ks4s hoping he'll just fold. He tanks a little, then calls.
Flop is Qs8s4h. Villain checks to me and I bet 20 BB. He insta-minraises me to 40 BB straight. I insta-call (mistakenly) without tanking.
The turn brings the Js. This is a great card for me, completing my flush. The villain checks, indicating a desire to show the hand down. I put him on an overpair, set, or AQ. There is room for one heart in his hand. I bet 65 BB, hoping to induce the villain to shove the rest. Villain just calls with ~40 BB behind.
The river is the 6s. The villain thinks for a little bit, then puts the rest of his chips in. I reluctantly call.
The reality is, we were both committed on the turn. He cannot fold if a non-spade comes, or he has allowed me to run an incredibly profitable 2-street bluff (think about it: if I did this move with the Ks4c and he folded when a Tc came off, he'd be a huge dork).
But shit, this guy was kind of clumsy and I considered that his hand was very likely live. I should have put his money in way ahead.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Crashzors
The old PC crashed this weekend. My power went out- possibly related?- and then when I rebooted, everything was running slow . After 10 ' the PC eventually froze. When I restarted, the system said that a core process was unable to start due to corrupt data.
So, I was forced to reformat my hard drive. Adios poker data! Everything else I own is safe from such an event. This makes me think I really, really need a backup system for my shit.
On the downside, I can no longer look at and pine after my exceptional success at $100 NL 14 months ago. On the upside, I can forget my altogether awful results in $25 NL this year.
I have been playing without a HUD, 4 tabling and pushing edges as hard as I can. It is tremendously easy to straightforwardly semibluff and cajole mediocre tags out of marginal pots. Observant fish pick up and become incredibly amenable to setmining as a result.
On Shippopotamus' recommendation I have signed up for the stoxpoker intermediate hold em video series. Just watching Ed Miller talk about selective, exploitive aggression is a breath of fresh air. Lovely.
In the next week, I am hoping to grind some more and press my edges in the sit n gos. I think I will finally switch to stars, in an effort to get FTP to give me rakeback.
So, I was forced to reformat my hard drive. Adios poker data! Everything else I own is safe from such an event. This makes me think I really, really need a backup system for my shit.
On the downside, I can no longer look at and pine after my exceptional success at $100 NL 14 months ago. On the upside, I can forget my altogether awful results in $25 NL this year.
I have been playing without a HUD, 4 tabling and pushing edges as hard as I can. It is tremendously easy to straightforwardly semibluff and cajole mediocre tags out of marginal pots. Observant fish pick up and become incredibly amenable to setmining as a result.
On Shippopotamus' recommendation I have signed up for the stoxpoker intermediate hold em video series. Just watching Ed Miller talk about selective, exploitive aggression is a breath of fresh air. Lovely.
In the next week, I am hoping to grind some more and press my edges in the sit n gos. I think I will finally switch to stars, in an effort to get FTP to give me rakeback.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
March! A month of plans.
February was a pretty crappy month for the Sleepy Lion. Fatigue, listlessness, and a total lack of motivation dogged me nearly every day. (Actual) work, poker (work), exercise- they all seemed impossible. Fortunately, the issue has resolved.
I feel good and I'm eager to get things rolling.
Poker Goals for March
I feel good and I'm eager to get things rolling.
Poker Goals for March
- Grind up for 1k. I cannot predict outcomes, but making some money this month would be nice. My earn in side games should be $15/hr, in tournaments I should make 25/hr. I want to put these numbers to work. At 20/hr, I should play 50 hours this month to make my due. So there's the real goal.
- Establish fixed playing times. From now on, I plan to play every Saturday from noon-3 no matter what, Wednesday 5 PM- 6PM and 8PM-10 PM no matter what, and Thursday 6PM- 9 PM no matter what. I hope to add an additional 5 hours flex time per week.
- "Coaching", writing, and Video watching. I need to talk to other people are playing to win more regularly. Hopefully through posts, conversations with friends, and sweating with shippopotamus, I will get enough insight. I will try to update my blog more often as well- every Tuesday and Saturday. I also plan to use some frequent player points and free demos for coaching sights besides cardrunners and stoxpoker.
- Winning approaches. I need to improve my perspective on playing well. I will implement a "cool down routine" beginning this week. For every 30 minutes I play, I will review it for five. By the end of the month I want to establish a warm-up routine and an exercise program to improve my health and focus.
- There can be no focus without perspective. I had virtually no perspective this month and I did next to nothing productive. My colleagues remain detached from such things and my girlfriend is no help. I only got a hold on myself once I took the time to gather my thoughts. I only had the courage to do this once my organization scheme deflated and got chewed apart by wild dogs.
- Tom Dwan is a savant, but Phil Galfond is a genius. In his interview with 2+2 pokercast, Galfond talks about his perspective on things. He is focused, disciplined, and clearly considers everything carefully. I want to check out his poker videos very much.
- The more a poker player wins, enjoys his/herself, has a positive attitude, and/or understand the dynamic tension between thinking and doing, the more likely he or she is fond of Tommy Angelo.
- There is no price too high for a good perspective. If you want to improve your poker play, talk to other people about it. If you want to improve at something else, talk to other people about it. If you don't know what to talk about, take a step back and remove yourself from the equation.
- If you don't know how to remove yourself from the equation, meditate.
- Have a plan. It's much easier to amend a plan than draft one. This goes from the highest level to the lowest.
- Video sites and poker software are a steal at twice the price. I wholeheartedly endorse stoxpoker and cardrunners. I have heard good things about one or two others.
- I hate being fat, but I love eating. Who's fault is that?
- I'm excited for the Durrrr challenge. How can a smart guy stand to lose if a bunch of halfwits get into heads-up poker.
- I really want to Super Sattelite into two WSOP events.
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