My biggest bubble mistake (and theirs).

I always-always-always overestimate the fold equity I can offer my bad opponents. Limp-calling and defending their big blinds too much. My second biggest failure is missing a lot of easy, unexploitable shoves.

Why? I don't think about poker hands in terms of "perceived value", simply their value to me. So when an opponent limps up front, I put them on a hand I would probably raise or fold in that situation and if I have a hand that rates well against those hands, or well enough that the added fold equity makes it a go. So I shove. Then they call with weak aces (generally rating 60-40 against the bottom of my range here) and low pocket pairs (coin flips vs. K9 and the like).

But bad as this mistake is, I can tell you a worse one. Failing to observe the dictates of the independent chip model on the bubble when defending your big blinds. With less than 10 BB in play, you CANNOT call for your entire stack without a hand that rates as a HUGE favorite (think roughly 2-to-1) against your opponents range.

For example, many opponents open any two cards in the small blind with less than 10 bets. With hands like 44, A2, and K9, you are about even odds to play. But if you lose and it cripples your stack or eliminates you, you lose. If you win, you make it to 3rd or 2nd place. The trade-off is not worth it.

So, how do you deal with it? Let them steal. No fun, I know. But calling is costly.

The sleepy lion returns.

I went spend crazy this weekend, buying a nice new office chair with lumbar support, a new monitor, and a backup hard drive.

I have also played a heap few more sit n gos. They have sat and gone a little worse than I would like. I am using SNGWizard to check my performace- I have made some loose shoves (always a problem for me) and have been gun-shy shoving from the small blind and button with a short stack- but I have also caught some really tough breaks on the bubble and in three handed play.

Basically, when the tournament is down to 3 or 4 people, the value of NOT losing is much higher than the value of winning, so responding to conditions and player tendencies is very positive EV. If you're doing it correctly, you pick up a ton of chips and when you get it all in you are doing it with a positive expectation overall. But, the cards have not been falling that way. Today was a big improvement, but I am still short more than a few buy-ins this week. That's life.

On the bright side, I made a deep run into a shootout tournament this morning. Shootouts are fun- you need to win the table to advance to a new table until there is just one remaining. The $5 buy in field was incredibly weak. I just killed these clowns. I ran well and made it to the penultimate round of tables, but ran into a wave of tough breaks. Nonetheless it was a nice cash.

25 NL is going very, very well. Having watched videos and posted on hands has improved my understanding of this game immensely. I am eager to see the results in my old stomping grounds, 100 NL.

Nice Day.

Made a deep run in a microstakes tournament. 4 handed, I ran into a lot of confrontations with marginal hands. My opponents were playing well but a little too gambly. Variance took the rug out from under me. Here are my last 100 tournament hands of the night.

Pre-strategy. An end of month summary.

As far as first months go, January of 2009 did not go great or even well. I lost money overall trying to adapt my rusty, unsteady my NLH game to the modern $25NL 6max. At $10NL, limit, and in tournaments, I was a winner, but not enough to compensate for my craptacular results in $25NL.

To put it in perspective, the amount I am down is roughly a bad night at $3/$6 limit hold em, or a live tournament buy in:$100. The Kirktholemew J. Thompson of April 2008 cackles at the thought of lamenting a loss of that small size. Nonetheless, it sucks and it's kind of quaint that money the size of a medium pot is now a good or bad month.

I will go into details about zee plan for the next month and overall evalutation by the end of the weekend.

Tournament Borenament Snorenament.

I played sit n' gos and several large buy in tourneys. My day was slow and a little unsatisfying monetarily. However, I did book a winning day and made a deep run in a 400 person tourney. It exhausts my patience so quickly.

I lose track of the fact that in a tournament, the later decisions are worth, far far more money. I need to have some sort of ritual for ramping up for the end. They way I busted was quite vexing - I decided to make a marginal shove and went headfirst into an overpair.

I'm reading a Schoonmaker's book "Your Best Poker Friend". When I bought it, I thought it sucked. After a few months of thinking about it, this book is right up my alley- it is systematic and thoughtful about the process of self improvement, it relates everyday life things to poker and vice versa, and talks about how to be realistic about plans and data evaluation. Neat.

Check out an awesome example of good poker from a limit hold 'em scenario. I think my opponent played very well and was likely bluffing high hearts the whole way. Also, see my worst misclick of the day on the hand below.

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HAND 1

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$0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Replay This Hand



CO: $6.20 (24.8 bb)

BTN: $26.65 (106.6 bb)

SB: $19.45 (77.8 bb)

Hero (BB): $23.30 (93.2 bb)



Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A 9

2 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls



Flop: ($1.50) 5 5 4 (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls



Turn: ($2.50) 8 (2 players)

SB bets, Hero calls



River: ($3.50) 6 (2 players)

SB bets, Hero raises, SB folds



Results: $4.50 pot ($0.20 rake)

Hero mucked A 9 (a pair of Fives) and won $4.30 ($2.05 net)







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HAND 2

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$0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Replay This Hand



BB: $19.25 (77 bb)

Hero (UTG): $21.25 (85 bb)

MP: $5.35 (21.4 bb)

CO: $25.10 (100.4 bb)

BTN: $10.45 (41.8 bb)

SB: $4.25 (17 bb)



Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with A 9

Hero raises, MP calls, CO folds, BTN calls, 2 folds



Flop: ($1.85) 9 T 9 (3 players)

Hero bets, MP calls, BTN calls



Turn: ($2.60) Q (3 players)

Hero bets, MP calls, BTN calls



River: ($4.10) 8 (3 players)

Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets, Hero folds, MP calls



Results: $5.10 pot ($0.25 rake)

MP mucked A 3 (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$1.75 net)

BTN showed 7 7 (two pairs, Nines and Sevens) and won $4.85 ($3.10 net)

All in all a good day.

Before I played today, I watched a video from a cardrunners player and Kyle Hendon about playing no limit in a looser, more showdown oriented way. I have an itch to play no limit soon, so maybe I'll do that next time I play.

I started off playing limit hold 'em, but I was neither winning nor playing particularly well. I still deviate from a solid strategy too much when I am not focused on it. This is very frustrating. So, I decided to move on and play some tournament poker. Holy smokes, tournament poker can be a breeze. I ran pretty well in my larger buy in tournaments and my multitable tournaments, so I made some decent scratch. After a few hours though, I was pretty bored, so I decided to make an effort back in limit play. I feel like I did much better.

In wrapping up, I reviewed my data from the year so far. I think I have been running a little poorly, but my play has some leaks. I am paying off too much with one pair and losing some money with suited connectors. I'll post some more analysis and my ideas of how to improve tomorrow.

Meanwhile, behold! My awesome tournament result: 66% ROI over 12 tournaments.