Morning Bonus Session

I woke up late this morning and was unable to get in to a morning meeting.

...so I spoiled myself a little and played some 50NL for about an hour. I made two glaring errors right off.

The first was shoving jacks into a tight villain who raised and then 4bet from the cutoff against my reraise- with one caller squeezed in between. I always read this as weak enough to call, assuming AQ,AJs+,TT+. But from this guy it's the goods. Pshhh. Adios buy-in.

The second, I raised KK on a deep stack table and got 4 callers. Flop ran K-J-brick, all diamonds. I bet and isolated a spewy player who limp-called preflop. I bet a brick turn and he made a decent raise. Although I would argue it is still closer than people like to think- this guy would definitely slowplay two pair, and overpair, or better on this flop- I shoved and he showed a made flush. Goodbye two buy-ins. The correct line was probably call-fold or call-call. I have not decided which.

Third small, but significant, bad decision. I bet-called a check raised w/AQ TPTK on a coordinated board and let him check-raise me again. I paid off a set.

On the other hand, I did bring my guns to war. I correctly played for set value in a few monster pots, fired a lot of second barrel pots and even a third barrel, and also got my money back from the spewzord who hit the flush on me in a virtually identical spot (my flush vs his strong made hand), except he was drawing dead. And it was a 300-and change pot :D.

I'm glad I'm getting used to 50 NL.

Money Printed and Parties Thrown: Session Reviews.

I played two very long sessions today totalling 2600 hands. In the first one, I dropped five buy-ins. In the second I made five buyins and a little sugar. I think it was mostly luck that made the difference, but that's ok.

Some things I noticed.

I did make a few "decision was wrong, hand read was correct" errors. This means I called because I was supposed to, or folded because I was supposed, not that I made the "good poker" decision.

My hand range is still way too loose UTG and in the HJ (VPIP 20 and 22).

I think I am raising too large with hands that should stay the nuts and not sizing some bets correctly.

I'm pleased that I was able to sit down and power through some hands.

Spots where you can throw a party on my dime.

1. In position.
2. With a premium draw played hyper aggressively.
3. By flat calling with KK preflop.
4. By raising a set on a wet flop.
5. With 75-150% of the pot left to bet on the river.
6. Check raising wide on dry flops.
   

Ask me why I haven't posted lately.

I've been telling myself to post about some poker strategy that I have been dwelling on before I do anything else.

What strategy have I been dwelling on? Glad you asked.

1. There is an enormous aversion to panacea in no limit theory. This is a given. However, there is a secondary aversion to relinquishing the panaceas that are still available. This is generic, of course but let me get into the guts of it.

A huge number of strategy discussions in no limit hold em do not relate to a strategy that truly represents significant changes in expected value. For example, when you get it in with aces on the flop, you know what you are facing: TPTK if you are lucky, a set if you are not, and a big draw otherwise. Against an opponent with skill, it's +EV to call not because you are a huge favorite but because you did a good job getting the money in preflop and the follow through is mandatory or you're leaving your money on the table.

But it is not a spot where you are printing money or letting someone else party on your dime. Go through a micro or small stake strategy forum's front page. Among all of the hands discussed, how many focus on a decision that can be changed away from letting someone throw a party on the poster's dime or towards printing money?

Secondarily, among those posts how many have a different spot than the one in question where you can talk about a shift in EV? I would say maybe a third.

How often is it pointed out? Probably about half the time.

How often is the advice acknowledged or seriously considered by the posters? Maybe another half.

And there you have it. If you read the small stakes no limit forums, 1/12 of all threads have a nugget for the original poster in them.

These are things that let me print money.

On the flop or before:

1. Position. God, the button is awesome.
2. A hand with weak players.
3. An image contrary to the nature of the current hand (LAG with aces, TAG with 67s).
4. 3 betting weak tags.

On the flop and beyond:

1. A pot against a hand range that is forced to play face-up. Pots where I am the aggressor.
2. Check raising light 3 bettors with a completely polarized range.
3. A hand that is at the top of its range.
   
4. A hand that is well-concealed.
   
5. Rivers played after well-sized bets. In river pots with less than 60% of a pot left to wager, or more than 200%.
6. Smallball. No one plays well with money behind out of position.
7. In bet-fold and check-call spots, as opposed to bet-call.
8. As a delayed c-bettor.

2. Expected Hand Dynamics. Based on what's happened so far in the hand and at the table, you should know how it's going down.

Lately, I've been trying to get more comfortable with the spectrum of hand outcomes, what flops will set them up, and how the opponent will behave. I've been imagining it almost like a tunnel, or a level of super mario brothers.

Which pipes do you take, how do you time your jumps? By now I've played most of the levels, so it's just a question of making sure my timing is up to scratch. More on this later.

Epic Decision.

If you sum my bankroll accross the two sites I play, I am easily rolled for 100 NL. Thus I have made an epic decision: I am moving up to (and staying at) 50 NL until it is clear I am ready to move up or I cannot grind a profit there.

My first attempt sucked. I played about 2k hands last night. There was some steaming involved, but also some crap beats. Sets by gutshots, lost flips, plays failing where I had the hand range pegged but didn't think they could find a call. All in all, 5 buy ins down. Still well equipped to play, however.

I plan to put in some more hands tonight before dinner and after my gf starts watching "lost".

Still no update on epic decision #2: my new avatars. I'm leaning towards killface on stars and back to the ATM on FTP.

This guy and I are on the samepage about everything.

Session Updates.

Yesterday I four tabled for about 2 hours.

I noticed two interesting things:

1. I don't get exhausted or flustered as often.
2. I still lose mindfulness quite a bit.

Also, I still made one abjectly horrible river decision after giving a fish air on the turn, expecting him to have only called with top pair, which would bet (dammit). His check back gave him a marginal draw that OBVIOUSLY got there. Why call?

I ran pretty good and felt good about it.

Since then I have played a couple MTTs and some limit with no good results. I'll hopefully grind some more tomorrow.